Bus Market: Leading Role of Large and Medium Buses

With the further advancement of urbanization and the emphasis on public transport priority policies by the state, coupled with the highly valued safety standards of school buses, the large and medium-sized passenger vehicles have maintained relatively stable growth in 2012.

Smooth demand

“The market demand of large and medium-sized passenger cars mainly comes from the subdivided areas such as road passenger transport, tourism, urban public transport, and group specialization. Large-size seat passenger cars are high value-added products in the passenger car market, with high profits and high market awareness. Naturally, it is a must-win place for bus companies. In 2012, the sales growth of large-scale road passenger cars was more prominent in the subdivided models, according to an industry veteran analysis.

Relevant statistics show that from January to November 2012, the country's large-scale passenger cars produced and sold 65,630 vehicles and 65,057 vehicles, a cumulative increase of 11.52% and 10.83% year-on-year, far higher than the industry average. The cumulative sales of Zhengzhou Yutong, Suzhou Golden Dragon, and Xiamen Golden Dragon rank in the top three. Xiamen Golden Brigade and Anhui Ankai are ranked 45th. From January to November, the total number of medium-sized passenger vehicles produced was 61,477, and the accumulated sales totaled 60,946 units, a cumulative increase of 1.67% and 0.98% year-on-year, respectively, of which the top three were total sales of Zhengzhou Yutong, Suzhou Golden Dragon and Xiamen Golden Dragon. FAW Toyota and Anhui Ankai are ranked 45th.

Niu Zhenhe, deputy general manager of Shijiazhuang Shinkansen Passenger Transport Co., Ltd., told reporters: “Our company has a lot of new car purchases in 2012, of which 20 are used for road passenger transport. Among these, 37 medium-sized cars are used for medium and short distances. Passenger transport, 53 seats were used for chartered tours, and at the same time, the company also purchased 40 medium-sized buses for the newly opened urban and rural public transport, because the two urban and rural public transport stations passed the county-level city with a small population. The traffic volume is not large, so there is no need for a 'large-channel' bus."

Experts pointed out that at present, China’s per capita travel mileage is relatively short. Overall, China’s intercity passenger transport, tourism, and urban public transport are still at low levels. The growth in demand for convenient city bus systems and tourism will directly stimulate the development of the medium and large passenger vehicle market. In 2012, the increase of large and medium-sized passenger cars is expected to maintain 10% to 15%. With the acceleration of urbanization and the increase in residents’ income, the demand for residents’ travel will continue to be released, which will support the prosperity of the passenger car market for a long time.

“One of the reasons why large and medium-sized passenger vehicles can maintain relatively stable growth is the promotion of national policies. The integration of urban and rural development is a comprehensive development. It is not just farmers who live in buildings, but the traffic is also suitable for integrated construction. Therefore, these years Urban and rural public transport are gradually replacing rural areas. It can be predicted that the demand for large and medium-sized buses by urban and rural public transport will continue to increase in the coming years, Niu Zhenhe believes.

New Star School Bus

“In the context of frequent school bus accidents, policy promotion has become the key to the growth of the school bus market. This has also made the school bus one of the most eye-catching segments in the segment market in 2012, and has played a very good supporting role in the growth of corporate sales. Li Shengsheng told reporters: "It is expected that in 2012 the school bus sales will exceed 2,800."

According to industry sources, since the total sales of school buses in 2011 were around 7,000 vehicles, and the base number was relatively small, sales in 2012 were expected to be 26,000 units throughout the year. Therefore, the increase was larger. After all, the school bus market is an absolute emerging market. From scratch to the market. The situation of school bus manufacturers is similar. In 2011, the sales of Hager buses will be around 200, and in 2012 it will exceed 1,000.

Considering that the urban and rural areas in China adopt the nearest schooling system, the demand for school buses is mainly located in rural areas and urban-rural areas. At present, the total number of junior high school and primary school students in China is about 152 million, which is about half of that in rural areas. According to which 30% of them need to ride a school bus to school and each school bus rides 50 people, the size of Chinese school buses should be around 500,000. Close to half of the existing bus ownership, so that the market for large and medium-sized passengers increased significantly. This also makes various companies full of expectation and confidence in the 2013 school bus market.

Another source for it

“In recent years, the state’s emphasis on energy conservation and emission reduction has been continuously strengthened, and policies and methods for encouraging the development of energy-saving and new energy vehicles have been issued. Therefore, the growth of gas buses in 2012 is similar to that of school buses, and it is obviously driven by policies. Li Shengsheng said: "In 2012, Zhongtong's gas buses can be described as explosive growth. The annual sales volume is more than 4,000. In addition to more and more urban buses adopting gas vehicles, medium and short-distance road passenger cars are also Gradually, gas is used as an energy source and, in addition, there is also a slight increase in the number of new energy passenger vehicles, with annual sales of around 500 vehicles. purchase."

According to the Interim Measures for the Management of Special Funds for Transport Energy-saving and Emission-reduction, the first batch of support funds for transport energy-saving and emission reduction projects in 2012 was 89 in total. Among them, 30 were fuel gas vehicles, and 62.31 million yuan were subsidies. The period of 41.54% of the total amount of subsidies. In the first half of 2012, a total of 11,522 gas buses were sold. From the data point of view, the effect of policies to promote the application of gas vehicles is very significant.

An industry person familiar with Haig Bus told the reporter: “Although the Energy Conservation and New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Plan discussed at the State Council meeting was in April 2012, it was reflected that the increase in orders was probably in the fourth quarter of 2012. It is expected that Haig's annual sales of natural gas buses will increase by 50%.”

Insufficient stamina

As early as the middle of 2012, analysts pointed out that from January to June 2012, the cumulative sales of all types of passenger cars in China reached 111,097 vehicles, an increase of 6.39% year-on-year, nearly twice the growth rate in the same period of 2011. The sales of large passenger cars were 36,804, an increase of 8.56%, the sales of medium-sized passenger cars were 36,298, an increase of 8.82%, and the sales of light buses were 37,995, an increase of 2.24% year-on-year. However, it is difficult to conceal the increase in the sales of passenger cars from high to low, and this trend will exert greater pressure on the passenger car market in the second half of 2012. The data from January to November just confirmed the above analysis. From January to November, the cumulative sales of passenger cars reached 381,400, an increase of 4.78% year-on-year, and the growth rate further narrowed.

“The major military buses in the major and medium-sized buses have performed very quietly in 2012, and they have limited contribution to the overall sales volume of large and medium-sized buses, and are unable to reverse the inability to grow large and medium-sized buses in the second half of the year. This is mainly due to the overall economic downturn. The impact of local government finances is very tight, the money allocated to the bus will also be reduced, the bus companies are unable to update the vehicle." Industry veterans said.

The same situation also appears in the export of large and medium-sized passenger cars. "Around the four quarters of the year, only the first quarter was outstanding, and the remaining time was flat." Insiders said: "As in the past, exports were mainly affected by the global economic recession, coupled with the fact that the major target markets are either politically unstable. Either the war is frequent and the export risk is greatly increased.” In 2011, the passenger car export market reached a historical peak, the average bus export price rose by nearly 100,000 U.S. dollars, and the average export price of Chinese passenger cars rose to 20,000 U.S. dollars. The proportion of large and medium-sized guest exports is close to 90%, and the dominant position is obvious. The increase in exports is much higher than the export volume.

“In 2012, the export value of Zhongtong Bus was around US$100 million, which is a steady state of development.” Li Zhisheng, Minister of Culture and Communication of Zhongtong Bus Brand, told reporters: “Frankly speaking, in 2012, the passenger car exports of the entire industry could be about 20%. The growth rate, of which Yutong’s export Venezuela’s large singles played a big role, apart from this big order, the exports of the top-ranking bus companies in the industry are basically equivalent.”

Industry sector analysis showed that Yutong’s sales of large passenger cars in the first half of the year have risen by volume and price due to the export of Venezuela’s orders. According to an announcement issued by the company on November 9, 2011, Yutong Bus signed a sales contract for 1216 buses and related supporting facilities with Fonterra, Venezuela. The total contract value is 1.49 billion yuan, and the delivery date is from January to July 2012. The consolidated price of a single vehicle in Venezuela has reached 1.22 million yuan, which is 2.6 times the current sales price of a company's ordinary large passenger car. The contribution from a single vehicle is approximately 3.5 to 4 times that of an ordinary large passenger car.

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